African outbound tourism forecast shows 19.4 million trips by 2035
A new study projects that Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia will together generate 19.4 million outbound trips by 2035, up from 13.3 million in 2025. The forecast, released in November 2026, highlights rapid growth in travel demand, air connectivity and spending across the five markets.
In this story
At a glance
- What changes
- Projected outbound trips rise to 19.4 million by 2035
- Timing
- Forecast covers the period up to 2035
- Who is affected
- Travelers from Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia
The details
- Announced by
- Skift Advisory (commissioned by Millat Group)
Overall forecast for the five markets
The Africa in Motion study estimates that outbound trips from the five leading African markets will increase from 13.3 million in 2025 to 19.4 million by 2035, a growth of nearly 46 percent. Combined outbound spending is expected to climb from $18.9 billion in 2025 to $30.4 billion in 2030, indicating a strong rise in both volume and value.
Country‑specific outlook
Egypt is forecast to record the strongest verified increase, rising 66.5 percent to 6.11 million trips by 2030, accounting for about 55 percent of total growth. South Africa remains the largest source market by volume with 5.3 million trips in 2025. Nigeria leads in spending, with $7.7 billion outbound expenditure in 2025. Kenya shows a balanced mix of business and leisure travel, while Ethiopia’s extensive airline network provides a foundation for future outbound growth.
- Egypt: 3.67 million trips in 2025, projected 6.11 million in 2030
- South Africa: 5.3 million trips in 2025, largest volume
- Nigeria: $7.7 billion spent abroad in 2025, highest per‑traveler spend
- Kenya: 49 % of trips business‑related, strong corporate demand
- Ethiopia: extensive international seats in 2025, hub potential
Implications for airlines and tourism operators
The projected increase in trips and spending creates opportunities for airlines, hotels and destination marketers to target high‑growth African outbound travelers. Capacity constraints, visa accessibility and affordability will influence how much of the forecasted demand translates into actual journeys. Operators are advised to monitor connectivity improvements, especially between Africa and the Middle East, Europe and the Gulf, which currently support a large share of outbound traffic.
- Focus on expanding direct routes to Gulf and European hubs
- Develop premium products for high‑spending Nigerian market
- Leverage Egypt’s growing volume for package tourism
What this means for travellers
Trip planning
- Travelers from the five markets should expect more flight options as airlines expand capacity
- Higher outbound spending may lead to more premium accommodation offers in destination markets
Cost and documents
- No new fees or documentation requirements are mentioned in the forecast
- Existing visa and insurance requirements remain unchanged for outbound trips
What you need to do
- Monitor airline schedules for new direct services from Egypt and Ethiopia
- Check destination marketing campaigns for tailored offers to African travelers
- Stay informed about any policy changes that could affect travel affordability
Who this affects
-
Egyptian outbound travelers
Egypt is projected to add the largest number of trips among the five markets
What to do Watch for increased flight frequencies and new tour packages
-
South African outbound travelers
South Africa already accounts for the highest outbound volume
What to do Expect continued availability of frequent international connections
-
Nigerian outbound travelers
Nigeria leads the group in outbound spending per traveler
What to do Look for premium travel products and higher‑value services
-
Kenyan outbound travelers
Kenya shows a strong business travel component
What to do Corporate travel providers may expand offerings to this market
-
Ethiopian outbound travelers
Ethiopia’s extensive airline network provides a foundation for growth
What to do Potential for new direct routes to Europe and the Middle East
Frequently asked questions
How many outbound trips are expected from Africa by 2035?
The forecast predicts 19.4 million outbound trips from the five leading African markets by 2035, up from 13.3 million in 2025.
Which African country will see the biggest increase in outbound trips?
Egypt is expected to record the strongest verified increase, rising from 3.67 million trips in 2025 to 6.11 million in 2030, representing a 66.5 percent growth.
What is the projected outbound spending for these markets by 2030?
Combined outbound spending is projected to rise to $30.4 billion in 2030, up from $18.9 billion in 2025.
Will there be new visa requirements for travelers from these countries?
The study does not mention any changes to visa requirements; existing visa rules are expected to remain in place.
How will airlines benefit from the forecasted growth?
Airlines can expect higher demand for routes connecting Africa with Europe, the Middle East and the Gulf, prompting potential expansion of capacity and new direct services.
